When the stakes are high, the signal has to be clear.
Hanaska aggregates information from across markets — prediction markets, financial data, real estate, and more — and distills it into one thing: a clearer read on the environment you're making decisions in. Not a prediction. A framework for knowing when and how to act.
Three layers of probability intelligence
No single market has the full picture. We fuse them all into a calibrated signal that beats any individual source.
PM Intelligence
Deep orderbook-level analysis of prediction market microstructure. When PM prices are reliable, when they're systematically wrong, and why — grounded in 3,461 clean data windows.
Cross-Market Fusion
PM probabilities fused with financial market signals, news sentiment, and macroeconomic indicators. A signal that doesn't exist in any single market.
ML Probability Models
A stacking ensemble that achieves 16% better calibration than raw market prices. ECE-first methodology, not accuracy-first.
Academic rigor, commercial application
Calibration and Prospect Theory in Prediction Markets
Systematic documentation of the inverse-S calibration curve. PM prices are overconfident at extremes — consistent with prospect theory’s probability weighting function.
Adverse Selection and the Hump-Shape Pattern
The informed/uninformed trader gap peaks at intermediate conviction levels. A clean empirical isolation of the Glosten-Milgrom mechanism in prediction markets.
ML Probability Estimation vs. Market Prices
A stacking ensemble combining PM prices, options-implied probabilities, and microstructure features achieves 16% better calibration than any individual market.
Are prediction markets pricing this event correctly?
We identify systematic divergences between PM and options-implied probabilities — and quantify who is wrong and by how much.
View ServicesBetter timing decisions start with better probability estimates
M&A timing, product launches, capital allocation — we quantify the probability of the macro conditions you're betting on.
Start a ConversationWeekly probability intelligence
Where markets disagree, what the data shows, and what it means for the decisions that matter. No predictions. No noise. Just signal.
Also available on Substack. Free to start.