Research and advisory services for organizations that make decisions under uncertainty.
We work with a select group of clients — hedge funds, corporate strategy teams, and investment firms — who need probability-based intelligence that goes beyond what traditional research provides.
Hanaska fuses prediction market data with financial markets, news flow, and macroeconomic indicators to produce calibrated probability estimates for events that matter to your decisions.
Research & Analysis
Custom research engagements answering specific probability questions. What do markets imply about a Fed decision? How are options traders positioned relative to prediction markets before an earnings release? We pull the data, build the analysis, and deliver a clear, defensible answer.
Ongoing Advisory
For clients who want continuous access to Hanaska’s research and probability intelligence. We monitor the markets, flag significant divergences, and provide context when the signal matters most — before a board meeting, ahead of a macro event, or when markets are sending conflicting signals.
Custom Model Build
We design and build probability estimation systems tailored to your domain. Grounded in the same stacking ensemble methodology validated on thousands of market windows — adapted to your specific events, data, and decision framework.
How an engagement works
Discovery
We start with a conversation about your decision. What are you trying to get right? What data do you already have? What’s the cost of being wrong?
Scoping
We define the specific question, the data sources, and the deliverable. Every engagement is scoped before it starts — no open-ended retainers without mutual agreement on what we’re building.
Analysis
We build the analysis. For research engagements, this means pulling data, running models, and writing up findings. For ongoing advisory, this means monitoring and flagging what matters.
Delivery
You receive a clear deliverable — a written brief, a model, a dashboard, or an ongoing feed — depending on what we scoped. We walk through the findings and answer questions.
Who we work with
Hedge funds and quantitative investment teams looking for signals at the intersection of prediction markets and derivatives markets — where mispricings occasionally exist and where our calibration methodology has an edge.
Corporate strategy and M&A teams that make high-stakes timing decisions — product launches, capital allocation, acquisition timing — and want market-derived probability inputs alongside traditional analysis.
Investment firms and advisors who want to understand the macro and event-driven environment their clients are operating in, without the noise of conventional media and sell-side research.
Start with a conversation.
Tell us about the decision you're trying to get right. We'll let you know whether we can help.
Get in Touch